RECENT ASIAN STAMP PERFORMANCE
As world trade has narrowed the
income gap between the industrial and third world countries it stands to reason
that the stamps of some of these countries may also reflect this change. After all, these are some of the most
populous countries in the world so it would not take too many collectors to
cause significant price rises. Japan was
one of the earliest to develop economically followed by South Korea and Taiwan,
but it was the rise of China which was the most closely followed by the stamp
market as prices rose in spectacular fashion.
Without going too far back in time, lets take a look at what is hot
today.
The accompanying table shows the
price movement of investment caliber stamps, i.e. those priced above $25 and
issued up to 1950 by my definition. They represent the
money stamps both in terms of market dollar volume and where dealers make the
most money. The lack of price movements
may reflect either a lack of interest or a failure to update by Scott, which
maybe a blessing in disguise for dealers given the overall market.
Afghanistan – Only a handful of price changes were registered but it has
a surprisingly large number of high priced items. It’s a hard country to collect due to the crude
local printing in only the local language.
Burma – Here too we see few price changes other than in the WWII occupation
issues.
Ceylon – This former British colony has a large number of trophy stamps (defined
here as cataloging over $1,000) which were left out since they distorted the
results. They totaled 57 mint stamps
cataloging $441,525 and appreciated 7.6% and 21 used stamps cataloging $73,250
and appreciated 4.8%.
China Old – While we are used to seeing significant rises here over the last decade,
the performance for the non-trophy shown had a surprising zero appreciation for
mint and only 2.8% for used stamps. The
trophy like items did continue to rise, albeit at a slower rate with 158 mint
stamps which catalog for $4,493,620 appreciating 6.6% and 96 mint stamps cataloging
$1,732,965 appreciating a healthy 23.6%.
Expect to see continued price rises here with healthier increases in the
stamps below $1,000. The need for an
underground currency in China has been made obvious by the recent bribery
prosecutions of politicians and businessmen.
Prosecutions made possible by a banking system which is transparent to
the government, so other means such as stamps will be used to conduct business
as usual.
China PRC – Since my cutoff year for stamps is 1950, few PRC issues are
included. Scott reports significant
price declines here which may reflect currency movements rather than price
swings. Stamps represent a vibrant and
fast moving industry in China so one needs to look at what is happening there
to get a fuller picture of market prices.
A most active player here is Interasia Auctions which has regular sales
in Hong Kong. Their auction results are
the best guide for serious buyers.
China Taiwan – There are almost no price changes for Taiwan. As with the PRC look to the Interasia
Auctions though few investment caliber stamps are at issue due to the 1950
cutoff date.
Hong Kong – The price change here are the result of a significant
number of individual price changes, but in both directions, for mint stamps
resulting in a net 0.6% rise. Used
stamps saw very few increases but numerous decreases resulting in a net -6.3%
decline. I do note that the Stanley
Gibbons catalogs for the last 5 years show few changes as well, but to the
upside. Neither Scott nor Gibbons appear
to have revisited the extensive treaty port stamps. The Gibbons prices are generally 25% higher
than Scott.
Japan - There were numerous price changes for Japan which favored mint over
used stamps. What is unusual here is
that the average mint stamp was $628 versus $46 for the average used. This is an extraordinarily low average value
for used stamps both generally as well as relative to the average mint stamp, a
ratio of 13.6 times. By way of
comparison, the average ratio for the entire market is 1.3 times. I would expect that in the coming years,
classic used Japanese stamps will be more positive performers provided they can
overcome the negative population demographics of the country.
South Korea – Price increases of 8.2% for mint and 14.6% for used were
rates of growth well above the average for the market as a whole. That 5
year growth for some 75,000 items was 3.5% for mint and 3.8% for used stamps.
Nepal – The stellar performer for the region was Nepal with spectacular growth
of 60% for mint and 79.1% for used stamps, practically every stamp issued up to
1950 showed an increase. It is likely
that Indian and Chinese collectors are the reason for this rise.
Philippines – Only a handful of price changes were shown by Scott
Catalogue. What is interesting is the
large number and high value of investment quality stamps for this country. That may be due to its roots to Spain as well
as to the United States and its geographic proximity.
Thailand – The stamps of Thailand took a major jump two years ago in an across the
board manner. Two thirds of the 205 mint
items showed sizeable increases.
Thailand is fairly prosperous and its stamps may just be benefiting from
the increased prosperity in the SE Asia region along with India.
As we can see, China is not the only good luck stamp story in
Asia, just the largest. And while it has
some $6 million in cumulative high value items, it still has a long way to go
to overtake the $16 million in catalog value for the aggregate of USA items. However, in this case we wish them success.
ASIAN STAMP 5 YEAR PERFORMANCE | ||||||
COUNTRY | # MINT | $ VALUE MINT | APPREC.% | # USED | $ VALUE USED | APPREC. % |
AFGHANISTAN | 172 | $34,648 | 1.6% | 99 | $13,694 | 0.0% |
BURMA | 99 | $18,184 | 0.0% | 92 | $15,047 | 0.0% |
CEYLON | 187 | $39,445 | 2.8% | 155 | $26,370 | 3.0% |
CHINA-OLD* | 367 | $112,313 | 0.0% | 239 | $66,447 | 2.8% |
CHINA-PRC | 129 | $62,912 | -12.4% | 102 | $27,572 | -11.7% |
CHINA-TAIWAN | 55 | $27,315 | 0.0% | 33 | $7,441 | 0.0% |
HONG KONG | 201 | $404,294 | 0.6% | 127 | $285,452 | -6.3% |
JAPAN | 294 | $184,593 | 6.6% | 154 | $70,784 | 0.0% |
S KOREA | 105 | $37,163 | 8.2% | 68 | $11,855 | 14.6% |
NEPAL | 40 | $19,655 | 60.0% | 39 | $11,517 | 79.1% |
PHILIPPINES | 301 | $304,205 | 0.0% | 185 | $121,790 | 0.0% |
THAILAND | 205 | $100,265 | 33.1% | 146 | $60,702 | 25.1% |
* Excludes stamps valued over $1,000. |